MarSP approach to scenario-building for the Azores (Calado et al., 2019).
Helena Calado
BB3. Building scenarios for MSP
MSP Scenarios-based
Source: http://marsp.eu/media/files/None/marsp-booklet.pdf
Building MarSP scenarios and storylines during the 2nd workshop of the project in Terceira island
Cláudia Hipólito
MarSP Scenarios
http://marsp.eu/media/files/None/marsp-booklet.pdf
The Maritime Spatial Planning process plans towards a desired future and a common vision. The vision is usually an integration of various aspirations from different stakeholders and sectors that depend on the governance framework ruling them. A tool as scenarios’ development is of high importance, once it helps decision-makers visualize both the future that might unfold due to specific actions/policies and the actions/policies needed to make a certain future happen. For the region of Azores, MarSP adopted a scenario-building process based on a combination of two approaches: an exploratory (“what can be done?”) and a normative (“how a specific objective will be reached?”).
The methodology is structured in four main steps (Figure 1):
(i) setting MSP objectives based on policy review and following stakeholders’ inputs (BB2);
(ii) identifying key objectives after consultation with regional experts;
(iii) developing scenario storylines; and
(iv) balancing across scenarios based on feedback from stakeholders gathered through engagement actions (including, first, (i) a vote on the scenario and, second, (ii) a vote on the sentences that built the storyline of the scenarios).
- A stakeholders’ engagement methodology defined in the beginning of the process, connecting the different steps along the process.
- Existence of a MSP vision and objectives built upon a participatory process allowed the construction of more tailored scenarios for the region.
- Previous workshops for experts and stakeholders’ engagement and sharing of the results set the path for their increasing willingness to participate and collaborate.
- Experts classification of objectives on themes: environmental; social; economic, was the basis to create robust storylines.
Amongst the three proposed scenarios (one economic oriented, one environmental oriented and one social oriented), stakeholders voted for the environmental scenario. However, they selected more sentences from the economic scenario, suggesting that participants are ideologically willing to protect the environment but less willing to take the needed actions to make that scenario actually happen.