Entirety | PANORAMA

4. Predictive Scenarios

Scenario data dashboard

Kassandra Srl

Scenario comparison dashboard

Kassandra Srl

Scenario comparison on Digital Twin

Kassandra Srl

Kassandra is a predictive system, and it does so by creating ‘scenarios’ in which key parameters are altered individually or collectively and the variation of the Resilience Index is calculated. This is done iteratively until an optimum level is reached.

In addition, the scenarios can be of two types, passive and active. Passive scenarios are those where parameters external to the system are altered, for instance climatic data, whilst active scenarios simulate actual adaptations or management strategies, such as extensive tree planting.

The scenarios are not a forecast but plausible alternative images of how the future can unfold, or, as defined by the IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Key conditions include:

Flexible Parameter Adjustment: The ability to easily alter key parameters, both individually and collectively, is crucial for exploring various scenarios and their impacts on the Resilience Index.
Comprehensive Scenario Planning: Implementing a structured approach to scenario planning helps ensure that all relevant variables are considered in the analysis.
Real-Time Data Integration: Incorporating real-time data feeds allows for dynamic scenario adjustments, improving the relevance and accuracy of predictions.
Stakeholder Input: Involving stakeholders in defining scenarios ensures that they reflect real-world concerns and priorities, enhancing buy-in and applicability.

Importance of Accurate Models: Initial models that lacked precision led to unreliable scenario outcomes. Ensuring data models are validated and refined improves prediction quality.
Parameter Interdependencies: Altering parameters individually sometimes yielded unrealistic results. Recognizing and accounting for interdependencies among parameters enhances scenario realism.
Iterative Testing: Conducting iterative tests of scenarios helped identify flaws and areas for improvement. Early iterations often revealed unforeseen implications of parameter changes.
Stakeholder Engagement: Gathering input from stakeholders in defining scenarios was crucial. Scenarios that did not align with community concerns faced challenges in acceptance and implementation.
Clear Communication: Presenting scenario results clearly and visually improved understanding among stakeholders. Complex data without clear visualizations often led to confusion and misinterpretation.

3. Current Resilience Identification

Existing Resilience dashboard

Kassandra Srl

Digital Twin detail

Kassandra Srl

In this stage Kassandra undertakes an analysis of resilience for all the entities within the Digital Twin based on twelve main Kassandra Parameters, hundreds of sub-parameters and thousands of relationships between these parameters. This highlights immediately areas where resilience might be lower and that might require urgent action.

For the successful implementation of Current Resilience Identification using Kassandra, key conditions include:

Comprehensive Data Collection: Gathering extensive data on the twelve main Kassandra Parameters and their sub-parameters is essential for accurate resilience analysis.
Robust Analytical Framework: Developing a strong analytical framework to process and interpret the complex relationships between parameters is critical for meaningful insights.
Integration of Diverse Data Sources: Ensuring the integration of varied data sources enhances the breadth and accuracy of the resilience assessment.

The key lessons learned during the implementation of Current Resilience Identification using Kassandra are:

Iterative Analysis: Initial analyses often uncovered unexpected relationships or gaps in understanding. Iterative approaches allowed for refinement and enhanced accuracy in identifying resilience factors.
Visualizations Aid Understanding: Effective visual representations of data relationships significantly improved stakeholder comprehension and engagement in the analysis process.

2. Digital Twin Creation

Digital Twin as data consolidator

Kassandra Srl

Resilience Index shown on Digital Twin

Kassandra Srl

Kassandra creates or builds upon a Digital Twin of the asset to be studied that uses analysis and simulation tools to take a long-term and whole-system view of an environment.

For the successful implementation of Digital Twin Creation using Kassandra, key conditions include:

High-Quality Data: Accurate real-time data from various sources is essential for a reliable Digital Twin.
Robust Integration: Seamless integration with existing systems ensures comprehensive environmental views.
Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Engaging experts from diverse fields facilitates holistic modelling.
User Accessibility: A user-friendly platform encourages stakeholder engagement.
Scalability: The framework should be adaptable to future data sources and analytical needs.
Continuous Validation: Regularly updating the Digital Twin ensures its accuracy over time.

To avoid common pitfalls, we have found that there is a need to prioritize data quality, adopt flexible development practices, and encourage interdisciplinary collaboration.

Data Quality Matters: Ensuring high-quality, accurate data is critical. Inaccurate data inputs led to misleading simulations, undermining trust in the Digital Twin.
Iterative Development: Adopting an agile approach allowed for iterative improvements based on user feedback. Initial rigid processes led to missed opportunities for optimization.
Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Collaborating with experts from various fields enriched the modelling process. Attempts to work in silos often led to incomplete or unrealistic simulations.
Scalability Planning: Planning for scalability from the start ensured the Digital Twin could adapt to growing data and user demands without major redesigns.
Regular Validation: Establishing mechanisms for continuous validation helped maintain the Digital Twin’s relevance and accuracy.

Project Impact Evaluation and Learning

The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the project is an ongoing process within Tsavo Trust (TT), with a dedicated M&E officer responsible for conducting these activities. The M&E officer collects data on various metrics such as crop harvest yields, reduction in human-elephant conflict (HEC), and other relevant ecological, social, and economic indicators to measure the project's impact. This systematic approach enables continuous assessment of the project’s effectiveness, identification of areas for improvement, and adaptation for long-term success. Data is regularly analyzed and incorporated into future planning and implementation to ensure the project's sustainability and alignment with its objectives.

Data Collection Systems:
Robust systems for collecting quantitative and qualitative data were established, enabling effective tracking of ecological, social, and economic indicators. These systems ensured accurate and comprehensive monitoring of project outcomes, providing critical insights into both intended and unintended impacts.
Baseline and Follow-Up Surveys:
Baseline surveys were conducted before project implementation, with follow-up surveys scheduled at regular intervals. These surveys measured changes and impacts over time, allowing the project to assess progress and effectiveness in achieving its objectives.
Community Feedback Mechanisms:
Community members shared their experiences and provided feedback on the project through monthly meetings, ensuring their perspectives were heard and considered in future project adjustments. This strengthened local ownership and trust while promoting continued community engagement.
Continuous Learning Workshops:
Regular workshops were organized to review evaluation findings, share lessons learned, and discuss strategies for improvement. Tsavo Trust updated stakeholders on the 10% Fence Plan (10%FP) during quarterly Human-Wildlife Conflict (HWC) workshops, fostering a culture of continuous learning and adaptation. This ensured that project teams and stakeholders could respond to new challenges and opportunities as they arose.

Continuous Evaluation Drives Improvement:
Regular and systematic evaluation was essential in understanding the project's real impact. This enabled informed decision-making, allowing the project to remain responsive and relevant over time.
Community Feedback is Key to Success:
Community members' insights and feedback provided practical, on-the-ground perspectives that led to meaningful improvements. Involving the community in the evaluation process built stronger relationships and increased local support for the project.
Partnerships Add Value:
Collaborations with relevant stakeholders added significant value to the evaluation process by offering a more in-depth analysis and enhancing the credibility of results. These partnerships allowed for more rigorous assessments and a better understanding of long-term impacts.
A Culture of Learning Enhances Sustainability:
The project’s emphasis on continuous learning through workshops and feedback mechanisms ensured its long-term success. This adaptive approach enabled the project to evolve, stay effective, and achieve sustainability by incorporating lessons from both successes and challenges.

Entirety

Local

Subnational

Breeding and Husbandry Techniques for the Chinese Giant Salamander (Andrias davidianus)

Bait Comparison Experiment Table

Hunan Province Giant Salamander Rescue Center

Breeding technology for broodstock selection involves choosing individuals of different sexes and origins from the same region as parents. The feed suitable for breeding should be diversified, mainly consisting of feed that is high in protein, low in fat, low in calories, and rich in trace elements. One month before and after the breeding period, feed that is high in protein, high in fat, and high in calories should be provided.

Feed selection and proportioning experiments involve feeding different aquaculture ponds with different feeds, and conducting trials with different combinations to determine the optimal feed plan and the best nutritional structure for the ecological breeding of the giant salamander. By mastering the most suitable feed and nutritional combination for different periods of the giant salamander, the sperm quality of male broodstock can be improved, and the egg-bearing capacity of female broodstock can be increased.

Essential factors:

1. Avoid inbreeding. Selecting parents of different sexes and origins from the same region can effectively prevent inbreeding;
2. Choice of feed. Choose feeds that are more easily obtained and have comprehensive nutritional components, such as grass carp, silver carp, loach, shrimp, frogs, pork, and pig liver, etc.
3. Feed processing. Live fish should be freshly killed, and inedible parts such as heads, bones, and spines should be removed; pork and other meats should have fat (if any) removed and cut into long strips weighing about 50 to 100 grams. Dead bait should be soaked in a 30% saltwater solution for 10 minutes; live bait should be soaked in a 2-3 ppm chlorine dioxide solution for 10 minutes.
4. Feeding of feed. Feed should be provided on a regular schedule, with consistent quality, and in fixed quantities. Dead bait should be offered every three days, around 6 pm, with the standard that it should be consumed within one hour. Live bait should be fed at 5% of the total weight of the giant salamanders in each area, with discretion to increase the amount as appropriate.

By recording the feeding, weight gain, activity, ovulation, and fertilization of the giant salamander (see attached figures). It was found that Group B had a significantly higher feeding efficiency than the other two groups, indicating that the giant salamander will turn to dead bait with lower predation difficulty when hunting live prey is challenging. Data from Group A show that the giant salamander gains weight quickly when fed a diet high in protein and fat for a long period, but has a low ovulation and fertilization rate. In combination with the analysis of the main nutritional components of various baits, it is suitable for the giant salamander's bait to be diversified, mainly consisting of baits that are high in protein, low in fat, low in calories, and rich in trace elements, such as various fish, loach, shrimp, crabs, frogs, etc. One month before and after the breeding period, appropriately high protein, high fat, and high calorie foods can be fed, such as various fish and poultry meat and internal organs, which is beneficial for the giant salamander to accumulate energy before breeding and to recover and overwinter after breeding.

Breeding area mimicking wild habitat environment

Scientific Achievement Appraisal Certificate

Hunan Province Giant Salamander Rescue Center

Addressing the existing technical challenges, namely the differences between ecological breeding environments and wild habitats, and the low natural reproductive capacity of the giant salamander, characterized by slow growth, late sexual maturity, and low survival and breeding rates. A method for ecological breeding suitable for the giant salamander, based on the environmental factors of its natural habitat, is provided.

The ecological imitation environment is established based on the ecological and environmental factors of the giant salamander's natural habitat, and the selection of the reference object for this ecological environmental factor model is crucial.

After long-term research and discussions among scholars, we have established an environmental factor model based on geographical and climatic factors, river section influence factors, cave environmental factors, and water environmental factors. Based on this model, we have established the best construction parameter system for "ecological stream ditches" and "caves." For example, the surface vegetation coverage of the cave area on both sides of the ecological stream ditch should be greater than 85%; the stream ditch should be constructed in an irregular shape, with a gradient of 30° to 45° extending into the stream, a width of 50 to 300 cm, a depth of 50 cm, and a stream bed covered with a 15 to 20 cm thick layer of sand and pebbles composed of river sand and pebbles, a stream water depth of 25 to 30 cm, and a flow rate of 0.05 to 1 m/s; the cave area ratio should be ≥1.5, and other specific parameter requirements.

Conception of one action plan with the Regional Directorate of Fisheries and Blue Economy (DRPEB) of Diana

In close collaboration with the Regional Directorate of Fishing and the Blue Economy of Diana, with whom we developed an action plan for the implementation of all the activity, mutually approved and signed.

It is always necessary to establish synergy with the partners concerned in order to be able to implement the planned activities effectively and efficiently.

Documentation and dissemination of results

Entirety

Local

Institutional strengthening & sustainability

The ACReSAL project collaborates with three key ministries: Environment, Agriculture, and Water Resources. It operates across multiple institutional levels, including state, national, local, and community levels. This approach ensures that project implementers at all ministerial levels have their capacities strengthened, thereby sustaining the project's investments and efficient landscapes management.

Effective collaboration across the three Ministries and the Institutions that are implementing the project through regular stakeholder engagements.
Technical support from the World Bank, the team provide support across project activities and ensure impactful project implementation.

The synergy between the Ministries and institutions is key to producing results, because for impactful results for the project it is key that all Ministries must work closely together. The synergy has provided more innovative and collaborative ideas for effective project delivery.

Sustainable Agriculture and Landscapes Management

The integration of sustainable agriculture and landscape management practices in land restoration efforts is crucial in conserving soil and water, promoting biodiversity, and mitigating climate change. This approach also improves livelihoods, enhances ecosystem services, and builds resilience. To achieve this, we conducted thorough assessments, engaged local farmers and other stakeholders, developed context-specific plans, provided training, monitored progress, and foster policy support. This ensures a holistic and sustainable restoration of degraded lands, benefiting both people and the environment, including water resources. It's important for the community to collaborate, contribute, and learn effective environmental management approaches to ensure the project's long-term sustainability and unsustainable agricultural practices.

Prioritizing alternative livelihood options in land restoration.
Sensitizing the community to environmental issues and methods to prevent land degradation.
Integrating climate smart agriculture in soil restoration.
Community Ownership and government support.

Emphasizing the importance of community participation to identify their top priority issues.
Raising community awareness of all interventions, including gully restoration and reforestation, through comprehensive awareness campaigns.
Establishing an interim engagement point, such as collaborating with traditional leaders, to secure community support

Documentation and dissemination of results

Continuous Community Engagement Throughout the Project Period

Curtis Obimbo- WWF-Kenya

Some community members had heard of success stories from elsewhere but were pessimistic, considering the unpaying efforts they had already put into restoring the area. Sensitization meetings were conducted regarding the hydrological restoration approach to ensure that the community was adequately included. Through VAJIKI CFA, the community was informed of the upcoming hydrological activity. Through the village heads, 30 communities participated in the hydrological restoration and monitoring training.

Regular communication with the local community throughout the hydrological restoration project ensured ongoing involvement and support. This engagement helped keep the community informed, addressed their concerns and fostered a sense of ownership over restoration efforts.

Providing continuous updates and engaging the community throughout the project ensures sustained involvement and support.
Establishing channels for community feedback helps address concerns and improve the effectiveness of restoration activities.

Continuous community engagement is essential for maintaining interest and addressing emerging issues throughout the project.
Being responsive to community feedback helps build trust and ensure the project's implementation and success.

Entirety

Local