Subnational | PANORAMA

5. Adaptive Pathway Plan

Scenario visualisation

Kassandra Srl

Scenario visualisation

Kassandra Srl

An Adaptive Pathway Plan is a strategic framework designed to enhance resilience and adapt to long-term changes, particularly in the context of climate change. It involves identifying adaptation challenges and evaluating the effectiveness of various interventions over time. The key components include:

Pathways Mapping: The plan illustrates sequences of measures or investments to achieve defined objectives, allowing for adjustments as conditions change.
Thresholds and Tipping Points: The approach uses indicators to signal when a change in strategy is needed, ensuring flexibility in decision-making.
Removal of Uncertainty: The uncertainty with using climate risk prediction models for decision making has led us to use Resilience instead, therefore removing uncertainty from the decision-making process.
Stakeholder Engagement: Involvement of diverse stakeholders ensures that the pathways are context-sensitive and reflect local needs.

Key enabling factors include:

Flexibility: The plan must adapt to changing conditions and uncertainties, allowing timely adjustments as new information arises.
Stakeholder Engagement: Involving diverse stakeholders ensures the plan addresses various needs, fostering broader support.
Clear Triggers: Establishing specific signposts for when to adjust strategies enhances decision-making and responsiveness.
Integrated Approach: Aligning the plan with existing policies creates a cohesive strategy that is easier to implement.
Ongoing Monitoring: Continuous evaluation of the plan's effectiveness is crucial for informed adjustments and long-term success.

Key lessons learned include:

Contextual Adaptation: Tailoring the analysis to specific contexts and needs enhances effectiveness and addresses complexity.
Visualization Tools: Diverse visual representations, like metro maps and decision trees, improve understanding and communication of pathways.
Stakeholder Engagement: Involving multiple actors is crucial for addressing varied values and objectives, requiring robust governance structures to support ongoing monitoring.
Shared Experiences: Documenting and sharing experiences can facilitate wider adoption and application of adaptive pathways in practice.

Implementation

Monitoring

Documentation and dissemination of results

4. Predictive Scenarios

Scenario data dashboard

Kassandra Srl

Scenario comparison dashboard

Kassandra Srl

Scenario comparison on Digital Twin

Kassandra Srl

Kassandra is a predictive system, and it does so by creating ‘scenarios’ in which key parameters are altered individually or collectively and the variation of the Resilience Index is calculated. This is done iteratively until an optimum level is reached.

In addition, the scenarios can be of two types, passive and active. Passive scenarios are those where parameters external to the system are altered, for instance climatic data, whilst active scenarios simulate actual adaptations or management strategies, such as extensive tree planting.

The scenarios are not a forecast but plausible alternative images of how the future can unfold, or, as defined by the IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Key conditions include:

Flexible Parameter Adjustment: The ability to easily alter key parameters, both individually and collectively, is crucial for exploring various scenarios and their impacts on the Resilience Index.
Comprehensive Scenario Planning: Implementing a structured approach to scenario planning helps ensure that all relevant variables are considered in the analysis.
Real-Time Data Integration: Incorporating real-time data feeds allows for dynamic scenario adjustments, improving the relevance and accuracy of predictions.
Stakeholder Input: Involving stakeholders in defining scenarios ensures that they reflect real-world concerns and priorities, enhancing buy-in and applicability.

Importance of Accurate Models: Initial models that lacked precision led to unreliable scenario outcomes. Ensuring data models are validated and refined improves prediction quality.
Parameter Interdependencies: Altering parameters individually sometimes yielded unrealistic results. Recognizing and accounting for interdependencies among parameters enhances scenario realism.
Iterative Testing: Conducting iterative tests of scenarios helped identify flaws and areas for improvement. Early iterations often revealed unforeseen implications of parameter changes.
Stakeholder Engagement: Gathering input from stakeholders in defining scenarios was crucial. Scenarios that did not align with community concerns faced challenges in acceptance and implementation.
Clear Communication: Presenting scenario results clearly and visually improved understanding among stakeholders. Complex data without clear visualizations often led to confusion and misinterpretation.

3. Current Resilience Identification

Existing Resilience dashboard

Kassandra Srl

Digital Twin detail

Kassandra Srl

In this stage Kassandra undertakes an analysis of resilience for all the entities within the Digital Twin based on twelve main Kassandra Parameters, hundreds of sub-parameters and thousands of relationships between these parameters. This highlights immediately areas where resilience might be lower and that might require urgent action.

For the successful implementation of Current Resilience Identification using Kassandra, key conditions include:

Comprehensive Data Collection: Gathering extensive data on the twelve main Kassandra Parameters and their sub-parameters is essential for accurate resilience analysis.
Robust Analytical Framework: Developing a strong analytical framework to process and interpret the complex relationships between parameters is critical for meaningful insights.
Integration of Diverse Data Sources: Ensuring the integration of varied data sources enhances the breadth and accuracy of the resilience assessment.

The key lessons learned during the implementation of Current Resilience Identification using Kassandra are:

Iterative Analysis: Initial analyses often uncovered unexpected relationships or gaps in understanding. Iterative approaches allowed for refinement and enhanced accuracy in identifying resilience factors.
Visualizations Aid Understanding: Effective visual representations of data relationships significantly improved stakeholder comprehension and engagement in the analysis process.

2. Digital Twin Creation

Digital Twin as data consolidator

Kassandra Srl

Resilience Index shown on Digital Twin

Kassandra Srl

Kassandra creates or builds upon a Digital Twin of the asset to be studied that uses analysis and simulation tools to take a long-term and whole-system view of an environment.

For the successful implementation of Digital Twin Creation using Kassandra, key conditions include:

High-Quality Data: Accurate real-time data from various sources is essential for a reliable Digital Twin.
Robust Integration: Seamless integration with existing systems ensures comprehensive environmental views.
Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Engaging experts from diverse fields facilitates holistic modelling.
User Accessibility: A user-friendly platform encourages stakeholder engagement.
Scalability: The framework should be adaptable to future data sources and analytical needs.
Continuous Validation: Regularly updating the Digital Twin ensures its accuracy over time.

To avoid common pitfalls, we have found that there is a need to prioritize data quality, adopt flexible development practices, and encourage interdisciplinary collaboration.

Data Quality Matters: Ensuring high-quality, accurate data is critical. Inaccurate data inputs led to misleading simulations, undermining trust in the Digital Twin.
Iterative Development: Adopting an agile approach allowed for iterative improvements based on user feedback. Initial rigid processes led to missed opportunities for optimization.
Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Collaborating with experts from various fields enriched the modelling process. Attempts to work in silos often led to incomplete or unrealistic simulations.
Scalability Planning: Planning for scalability from the start ensured the Digital Twin could adapt to growing data and user demands without major redesigns.
Regular Validation: Establishing mechanisms for continuous validation helped maintain the Digital Twin’s relevance and accuracy.

1. Data Acquisition and Analysis

Kassandra database

Kassandra Srl

Kassandra data dashboard

Kassandra Srl

Kassandra is a platform designed to enhance climate change decision-making through the power of generative AI. It facilitates the acquisition and consolidation of data from various sources, such citizen engagement workshops, archive searches, surveys, or even IoT devices and urban applications, allowing for a comprehensive view of a city's environmental landscape.

Data Acquisition: Kassandra collects diverse data related to climate, resource usage, and urban dynamics, acting as a central hub for this information,
Data Transmission: The platform efficiently transmits this consolidated data to a virtual environment, making it accessible and easily understandable for decision-makers.
Data Analysis: By integrating with advanced analytics tools, Kassandra supports real-time insights, enabling city planners to visualize trends and make informed decisions regarding resource management.
Scalability: The platform’s seamless horizontal scaling allows for accommodating increasing data needs as cities grow and evolve.

The conditions crucial for enabling the success of Kassandra as a platform for climate change decision-making:

Data Quality: Ensuring the accuracy, consistency, and completeness of data collected from various sources.
Interoperability: Facilitating seamless integration between Kassandra and existing urban systems and technologies.
Stakeholder Engagement: Involving community members, policymakers, and experts in the decision-making process to ensure diverse perspectives are considered.

Key lessons learned during the implementation of Kassandra as a climate change decision-making platform include:

Importance of Data Governance: Establishing clear protocols for data collection, storage, and sharing is essential. Inadequate governance can lead to data inconsistencies and trust issues among stakeholders.
Iterative Development: Adopting an agile approach allowed for continuous improvement based on user feedback and changing requirements. Rigid planning often led to delays and misalignment with user needs.
Collaboration with Stakeholders: Engaging local communities, policymakers, and technical experts throughout the process fostered buy-in and created a more relevant tool. Initial efforts that overlooked this collaboration faced challenges in acceptance.
Scalability Considerations: Planning for future growth from the outset ensured that the platform could handle increasing data loads and user demands without significant overhauls.

Project Impact Evaluation and Learning

The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the project is an ongoing process within Tsavo Trust (TT), with a dedicated M&E officer responsible for conducting these activities. The M&E officer collects data on various metrics such as crop harvest yields, reduction in human-elephant conflict (HEC), and other relevant ecological, social, and economic indicators to measure the project's impact. This systematic approach enables continuous assessment of the project’s effectiveness, identification of areas for improvement, and adaptation for long-term success. Data is regularly analyzed and incorporated into future planning and implementation to ensure the project's sustainability and alignment with its objectives.

Data Collection Systems:
Robust systems for collecting quantitative and qualitative data were established, enabling effective tracking of ecological, social, and economic indicators. These systems ensured accurate and comprehensive monitoring of project outcomes, providing critical insights into both intended and unintended impacts.
Baseline and Follow-Up Surveys:
Baseline surveys were conducted before project implementation, with follow-up surveys scheduled at regular intervals. These surveys measured changes and impacts over time, allowing the project to assess progress and effectiveness in achieving its objectives.
Community Feedback Mechanisms:
Community members shared their experiences and provided feedback on the project through monthly meetings, ensuring their perspectives were heard and considered in future project adjustments. This strengthened local ownership and trust while promoting continued community engagement.
Continuous Learning Workshops:
Regular workshops were organized to review evaluation findings, share lessons learned, and discuss strategies for improvement. Tsavo Trust updated stakeholders on the 10% Fence Plan (10%FP) during quarterly Human-Wildlife Conflict (HWC) workshops, fostering a culture of continuous learning and adaptation. This ensured that project teams and stakeholders could respond to new challenges and opportunities as they arose.

Continuous Evaluation Drives Improvement:
Regular and systematic evaluation was essential in understanding the project's real impact. This enabled informed decision-making, allowing the project to remain responsive and relevant over time.
Community Feedback is Key to Success:
Community members' insights and feedback provided practical, on-the-ground perspectives that led to meaningful improvements. Involving the community in the evaluation process built stronger relationships and increased local support for the project.
Partnerships Add Value:
Collaborations with relevant stakeholders added significant value to the evaluation process by offering a more in-depth analysis and enhancing the credibility of results. These partnerships allowed for more rigorous assessments and a better understanding of long-term impacts.
A Culture of Learning Enhances Sustainability:
The project’s emphasis on continuous learning through workshops and feedback mechanisms ensured its long-term success. This adaptive approach enabled the project to evolve, stay effective, and achieve sustainability by incorporating lessons from both successes and challenges.

Entirety

Local

Subnational

Integrated Land Use Planning

Integrated land use planning strategically allocated land for agriculture, conservation, and human settlements, balancing the needs of both people and wildlife. After training on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and continued sensitization on wildlife and habitat conservation during monthly community meetings facilitated by the BIOPAMA project, the integrated land use approach was on its way to being achieved. The beneficiaries of the 10% Fence Plan maximized the allocated 10% for agriculture by planting certified seeds best suited for the climatic conditions, resulting in high yields. At the same time, the remaining 90% of the land was effectively utilized by wildlife and livestock, creating the much-needed balance in Kamungi Conservancy. This approach benefited both the communities and wildlife by promoting sustainable land use that supported livelihoods and conservation efforts.

Collaborative Planning:
A multi-stakeholder approach was essential for the success of integrated land use planning. Community members, conservationists, agricultural experts, and government officials were actively involved in the planning process, ensuring that the needs of all parties were considered. The inclusion of indigenous knowledge and the contributions made during monthly community meetings, facilitated by the BIOPAMA project, fostered a sense of ownership and commitment from local communities. This collaborative approach ensured that land was allocated for both agricultural and wildlife purposes, balancing the coexistence of people and nature.
Sustainable Land Management Practices:
Training on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) empowered community members to adopt practices that enhanced agricultural productivity while conserving the environment. Certified seeds were used to optimize crop yields in the 10% of land allocated for agriculture under the Fence Plan. Simultaneously, sustainable grazing and habitat management ensured that the remaining 90% of the land was beneficially used by wildlife and livestock. This approach helped maintain biodiversity, supported ecosystem resilience, and contributed to soil health and water conservation.
Zoning and Mapping:
Clear zoning and mapping strategies were implemented, designating areas for agriculture, wildlife, and livestock use. The 10% allocation for farming was carefully selected based on land suitability for crops and climatic conditions, ensuring maximum productivity. The remaining 90% was preserved for wildlife and grazing, providing a balanced and functional land use system. Community land mapping allowed for real-time monitoring of land use, helping to maintain the ecological integrity of Kamungi Conservancy.
Economic Incentives:
Economic benefits played a critical role in ensuring community participation and adherence to the land use plan. The high agricultural yields from the 10% Fence Plan, achieved through the use of climate-smart practices and certified seeds, provided direct financial benefits to the local communities. Additionally, Tsavo Trust’s community support initiatives—such as the provision of solar home systems, energy-saving cook stoves, dam liners for water conservation, scholarship and education support, and health support—further incentivized communities to maintain the balance between conservation and development. These incentives significantly contributed to the overall success of the integrated land use approach by improving livelihoods while promoting sustainable land management practices.
Capacity Building and Training:
The capacity-building initiatives led by the BIOPAMA project were instrumental in training community members on climate-smart agriculture and wildlife conservation. These trainings, along with continued sensitization efforts during the monthly community meetings, ensured that communities were well-equipped with the knowledge and skills to implement sustainable land management practices. The strong foundation of knowledge led to more effective land use, increased agricultural productivity, and improved wildlife conservation efforts.

Inclusivity Drives Success:
Engaging all stakeholders—community members, conservationists, agricultural experts, and government officials—was essential to the success of the integrated land use planning. The participatory approach ensured that diverse needs were considered, fostering community ownership and long-term adherence to the plan. The inclusion of local knowledge, reinforced by continuous sensitization through the BIOPAMA project’s community meetings, contributed significantly to the plan’s success.
Climate-Smart Agriculture is Key to Productivity:
The use of certified seeds and climate-smart agricultural practices under the 10% Fence Plan led to significantly higher yields, demonstrating that sustainable farming techniques can greatly benefit local communities. The successful integration of these practices allowed the community to benefit economically while simultaneously contributing to the conservation of surrounding ecosystems.
Economic Incentives Encourage Community Buy-in:
Direct economic benefits, such as the provision of solar home systems, energy-saving cook stoves, dam liners, scholarship and education support, and health services, played a crucial role in encouraging community adherence to the land use plan. These livelihood projects, supported by Tsavo Trust, reinforced the balance between conservation and development, ensuring that communities saw tangible benefits from their participation in conservation efforts. This linkage between conservation and improved living standards fostered long-term support for the plan.
Balancing Land Use Enhances Coexistence:
By designating 10% of the land for agriculture and reserving 90% for wildlife and livestock, the land use plan successfully created a balance that supported human livelihoods while maintaining wildlife habitats. This careful land allocation reduced human-wildlife conflicts and ensured the sustainable use of natural resources, promoting long-term coexistence.
Policy and Legal Frameworks Provide Stability:
Strong policy backing and legal support were instrumental in enforcing the integrated land use plan. The collaboration with local governments ensured that land use boundaries were respected and violations addressed. This legal framework created a foundation for sustained conservation efforts and development.
Adaptability is Essential for Sustainability:
The continuous monitoring and evaluation of land use through GIS mapping and community feedback mechanisms allowed for adaptive management. This flexibility ensured that the land use plan could respond to changing environmental conditions and socio-economic needs, making it more resilient and sustainable in the long term.

Breeding and Husbandry Techniques for the Chinese Giant Salamander (Andrias davidianus)

Bait Comparison Experiment Table

Hunan Province Giant Salamander Rescue Center

Breeding technology for broodstock selection involves choosing individuals of different sexes and origins from the same region as parents. The feed suitable for breeding should be diversified, mainly consisting of feed that is high in protein, low in fat, low in calories, and rich in trace elements. One month before and after the breeding period, feed that is high in protein, high in fat, and high in calories should be provided.

Feed selection and proportioning experiments involve feeding different aquaculture ponds with different feeds, and conducting trials with different combinations to determine the optimal feed plan and the best nutritional structure for the ecological breeding of the giant salamander. By mastering the most suitable feed and nutritional combination for different periods of the giant salamander, the sperm quality of male broodstock can be improved, and the egg-bearing capacity of female broodstock can be increased.

Essential factors:

1. Avoid inbreeding. Selecting parents of different sexes and origins from the same region can effectively prevent inbreeding;
2. Choice of feed. Choose feeds that are more easily obtained and have comprehensive nutritional components, such as grass carp, silver carp, loach, shrimp, frogs, pork, and pig liver, etc.
3. Feed processing. Live fish should be freshly killed, and inedible parts such as heads, bones, and spines should be removed; pork and other meats should have fat (if any) removed and cut into long strips weighing about 50 to 100 grams. Dead bait should be soaked in a 30% saltwater solution for 10 minutes; live bait should be soaked in a 2-3 ppm chlorine dioxide solution for 10 minutes.
4. Feeding of feed. Feed should be provided on a regular schedule, with consistent quality, and in fixed quantities. Dead bait should be offered every three days, around 6 pm, with the standard that it should be consumed within one hour. Live bait should be fed at 5% of the total weight of the giant salamanders in each area, with discretion to increase the amount as appropriate.

By recording the feeding, weight gain, activity, ovulation, and fertilization of the giant salamander (see attached figures). It was found that Group B had a significantly higher feeding efficiency than the other two groups, indicating that the giant salamander will turn to dead bait with lower predation difficulty when hunting live prey is challenging. Data from Group A show that the giant salamander gains weight quickly when fed a diet high in protein and fat for a long period, but has a low ovulation and fertilization rate. In combination with the analysis of the main nutritional components of various baits, it is suitable for the giant salamander's bait to be diversified, mainly consisting of baits that are high in protein, low in fat, low in calories, and rich in trace elements, such as various fish, loach, shrimp, crabs, frogs, etc. One month before and after the breeding period, appropriately high protein, high fat, and high calorie foods can be fed, such as various fish and poultry meat and internal organs, which is beneficial for the giant salamander to accumulate energy before breeding and to recover and overwinter after breeding.

Breeding area mimicking wild habitat environment

Scientific Achievement Appraisal Certificate

Hunan Province Giant Salamander Rescue Center

Addressing the existing technical challenges, namely the differences between ecological breeding environments and wild habitats, and the low natural reproductive capacity of the giant salamander, characterized by slow growth, late sexual maturity, and low survival and breeding rates. A method for ecological breeding suitable for the giant salamander, based on the environmental factors of its natural habitat, is provided.

The ecological imitation environment is established based on the ecological and environmental factors of the giant salamander's natural habitat, and the selection of the reference object for this ecological environmental factor model is crucial.

After long-term research and discussions among scholars, we have established an environmental factor model based on geographical and climatic factors, river section influence factors, cave environmental factors, and water environmental factors. Based on this model, we have established the best construction parameter system for "ecological stream ditches" and "caves." For example, the surface vegetation coverage of the cave area on both sides of the ecological stream ditch should be greater than 85%; the stream ditch should be constructed in an irregular shape, with a gradient of 30° to 45° extending into the stream, a width of 50 to 300 cm, a depth of 50 cm, and a stream bed covered with a 15 to 20 cm thick layer of sand and pebbles composed of river sand and pebbles, a stream water depth of 25 to 30 cm, and a flow rate of 0.05 to 1 m/s; the cave area ratio should be ≥1.5, and other specific parameter requirements.

Establish Management Systems and Technical Procedures

Compensation Measures for Damages Caused by Key Protected Terrestrial Wild Animals 这个翻译的背景是什么？

Nanshan National Park

the guidelines have clarified the purposes, types, procedures, and documentation requirements for patrols.

Patrol Technical Regulations of Nanshan National Park

Nanshan National Park

1.Establishment of Nanshan National Park Patrol Technical Regulations: The guidelines have clarified the purposes, types, procedures, and documentation requirements for patrols. Standards for establishing patrol teams and planning patrol schedules and routes have been defined. Key plots, rare tree species, and endangered animals within the national park are under focused conservation, with any issues being reported promptly. Additionally, the regulations help in disseminating forestry policies and regulations, enhancing the community's awareness and participation in resource protection. 2. Issuance of the "Nanshan National Park Key Protected Terrestrial Wild Animals Damage Compensation Regulations": This policy specifies the circumstances, eligible compensation recipients, compensation authorities, and procedures. It provides necessary legal support and enforcement for citizens, legal persons, or other organizations that suffer losses due to the infringement of key protected terrestrial wild animals within the national park.

Management Support: The administrators recognize the necessity of this work and have organized professional technical staff to develop technical procedures and management systems based on the actual situation of Nanshan National Park. These have been published after several discussions and studies within the management bureau. 2.Technical Support from the Administration: The management bureau has established a department responsible for patrol work and employs professional technical workers to guide and supervise the effective implementation of technical management systems and procedures. There are multiple conservation stations within the national park's boundaries, and several local patrol officers who are familiar with the terrain and knowledgeable about wildlife protection have been hired. 3.Adequate Funding: The management bureau and local government provide funding and subsidies for the patrol work, ensuring that the patrol teams have sufficient financial support.

Implementation

Local

Subnational

The guidelines have clarified the purposes, types, procedures, and documentation requirements for patrols.