Foresight research techniques

Three foresight techniques were employed: (1) horizon scanning, (2) the Delphi Method, and (3) Backcasting. 

 

Horizon scanning is a technique used for researching signals of change in the present and their potential future impacts. This ensured a comprehensive overview of the existing development issues, and narrow them down to a set of potentially challenging ones. Data collected in this process include secondary data related to SDG targets, headlines of newspapers in the past 3 years, social media trends in the past year, and insights into the local situations by local NGOs and CSOs.  

The Delphi method was employed to narrow down and prioritize the potential challenges and issues. This method was used for the design of the consultation process in which each expert has the least non-academic influence on each other. This project had two rounds of questionnaires. The first round was to cross-check the data from horizon scanning by the experts. The second round was for prioritizing identified challenging development issues. 

 

The prioritized ones were selected as topics for the regional foresight workshop in which Backcasting was employed. It was used to design a participatory process in which stakeholders formulated their aspirations and proposed strategic directions to achieve the future. 

Before the COVID-19, the regional teams prefer face-to-face interactions and consultations. The foresight techniques were included only in the regional foresight workshop. However, with the COVID-19, we need a solution for the whole project. 

 

All the foresight techniques were adaptable because of the availability of online conferencing platforms and online survey platforms. As the team consisted mostly of younger researchers, learning new online tools was not a problem. TSRI also played a role as technician assistance for the regional teams.

 

SDGs contain too many topics for the Delphi Method, making the participating experts very exhausted when responding to several rounds of questionnaires. Moreover, almost no one knows all topics under SDGs enough to prioritize them with good judgement. In the end, we allowed the experts to only respond to the area(s) of their expertise.

Google Form does not work especially for a long-form that people take 4-5 hours to finish. We then shifted to Survey Monkey, which is more convenient once you understand the system. However, the learning curve is high. So we decided that SDG Move should take care of turning the questionnaire online and preliminarily processing the results for the regional teams. 

Prioritized challenging SDG regional issues tend to interlink with each other.

An online consultation process is more efficient when there are no more than 10 people in a group. In a group, a facilitator and at least one note taker are needed. A facilitator increases the efficiency of the consultation. A meeting for preparation is needed before the event. Templates for note-taking should be provided. 

 

Policy Frameworks in the Scope of Transitioning to Low Carbon Sea Transport in the Marshall Islands

The national fleet of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) highly depends on imported fuels and is therefore a significant source of GHG-emissions. The bilateral program “Transitioning to Low Carbon Sea Transport (LCST)” implemented by RMI and the Gesellschaft für internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) aims at supporting the RMI Government´s planning and decision-making processes with respect to its low carbon future and the reduction of GHG-emissions from domestic sea transport, through consultancy, research, training, coordination of policy support to RMI and supporting in delivering RMI’s commitments under UNFCCC to achieve reduced GHG emissions from domestic shipping 40% below 2010 levels by 2030 and full decarbonization by 2050.

The Marshallese Government founded and is an active member of the High Ambition Coaltion for Shipping (SHAC) at IMO and UNFCCC and due to their ambition, the group of supporters of an ambitious contribution of sea transport to the climate goals is growing. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, international meetings and high-level conferences are taking place remotely to a high extend.

The development and facilitation of capacity development under the LCST project has the aim to enhance knowledge of IMO structures and ways to contribute to high-level forums and negotiations such as UNFCCC for different ministries in RMI. RMI plays a key role in securing ambitious goals and climate leadership continously develops with the support of partners to RMI. Through workshops, support on negotiation techniques and media outreach, visibility and recognition is increased and RMI's voice heard on the international stage. 

Together with Independent Diplomat, the project supports the RMI Government in actively participating at high-level policy negotiations and conferences such as the High Ambition Coalition and the IMO.

Developing distance learning resources, presentations and briefs on climate mitigation in shipping to provide an overview of air emissions and climate change issues in maritime transport are highly important

Developing international responses and frameworks to climate change by the shipping sector and delivering web-based information sessions on climate mitigation in shipping and maritime transport help to facilitate workshops in the region and other SIDS.

Highlighting past and on-going IMO activities and the wider industry equip partners with knowledge of relevant debates leading to the adoption and implementation of positions, strategies and declarations in international high-level forums. 

 

Sustainable Sea Transport inside the lagoon and between atolls of the Marshall Islands

Ri Majol, the people of the Marshall Islands were known for their superior boat building and sailing skills for centuries. They traveled frequently between their atolls (for trade and war) on big offshore canoes called Walap (some of them 100ft long). The lagoons of their low-lying coral atolls where crested by sails of smaller outrigger canoe designs for rapid inside lagoon transportation, food gathering and fishing. Together with Waan Aelõñ in Majel, we are reviving the traditional knowlege combined with modern technology. The ambitious goals of the Marshall Islands in the sea transport sector have become the main driver and motivation for us to pursue and to transition towards a low carbon fleet for the Marshall Islands for transport inside the lagoons and between atolls. Currently, a 150 ft. Training Vessel is about to be constructed and delivered to RMI by the 2nd half of 2022. After the agreement of the design, the market survey process started with the objection to identify shipyards that are interested and capable of building the new built as drafted in the tender design. The Maritime Training Approach in the Marshall Islands sets a clear focus on Low Emission Sea Transport Education and will train future sailors as part of the national fleet operators.

 

Today, the traditional outrigger canoe designs are not in use for inter-atoll voyages in RMI anymore. The traditional inter atoll voyages stopped and none of the traditional inter-atoll canoes (Walap) survived till today. Nowadays, offshore transport tasks are mainly carried out by the government owned Marshall Island Shipping Corporation (MISC) and private contractors with conventional monohull freighters with motorized engines causing emissions and impact on climate change.

The charter of SV Kwai - a sailing cargo vessel - in the time period from September to end of December 2020 showed how essential training is in the revitalization of sailing rigged ships that make the way open for a low emission transportation set up in RMI in the future. Sailing trainings took place on SV Kwai for the first time with participants already enlisted by MISC. The training was held with the intention of sailing within the lagoon of Majuro. The aim was to educate on Kwai operations under sail and to train the MISC crew hands on alongside the SV Kwai crew from Kiribati, USA and Australia. An assessment meeting took place after the training to capture the positive outcomes and summarize improvements for upcoming trainings in the future. The trainings already provided a first indication of training needs for the maritime sector in RMI.

Stable mechanisms for stakeholders’ involvement

The multi-stakeholder’s approach is at the core of the regional dialogue on Blue Economy and at the heart of the UfM mandate. In this regard, the Mediterranean Blue Economy Stakeholder Platform (MedBESP) was created to ensure the involvement of different stakeholders in a dynamic and interactive way, being a regional networking platform for sharing knowledge and supporting the development of the blue economy. It allows the facilitation of coordination and links among initiatives, programs and projects of relevance to blue economy, triggering the final impact of the existing initiatives.

The Mediterranean Blue Economy Stakeholder Platform has been proven to expand the Blue Economy community, to ensure flow of information and communicate all content types in an appealing, engaging, shareable way, to engage the community, to get platform users to share content and connect with each other. 

  • Solid tools for stakeholders' involvement, including the Med Blue Economy Platform; regular Stakeholders Conference/s; representation of categories of stakeholders at the UfM WG on Blue Economy

The UfM identifies and supports concrete regional cooperation projects that enhance partnerships and interactions in the region between promoters, partners and beneficiaries through the scaling up effect and development of innovative initiatives. 

The UfM acts as a catalyst of projects, accompanying promoters throughout the project lifecycle and enhancing regional dialogue to create synergies for partnerships.

Community engagement through empowering activities

In order to ensure sustainability and long-term effectiveness, those areas are managed by the community, alongside with: 

  • Development of a sustainable fish consumer guide for restaurants and tourists through research on sustainable fish, fishing practices, fish supply chains and demand
  • Establishment of 5 livelihood associations such as VSLAs
  • Feasibility study for the development of sustainable fishing cooperatives
  • Training and equipment of fishermen as Ocean Rangers to monitor fishing practices.

These activities have resulted in the reduction of destructive, indiscriminate artisanal fishing methods and over-fishing in four fishing communities in order to reduce unsustainable pressure on fish stocks and the catch of vulnerable species (Tofo, Barra, Rocha, Morrungulo and potentially Bazaruto).

Communities are empowered through the management of their marine areas and through education activities, as well as improved livelihoods. They engage therefore in safeguarding their resources, instead of using destructive fishing methods. 

  • Identifying and supporting other forms of alternative livelihoods for fisher households help to reduce their reliance on destructive fishing methods and reduce the impact of reef closures on the economic status and food security of their families.
  • Social mobilization and awareness raising are instrumental in building pressure for change in behavior and practices at the local and provincial level.
Four fishing communities successfully managing LMMAs along the Inhambane coast.

With the creation of an effective network of Locally Managed Marine Areas (LMMAs) along Inhambane´s coast and sustainable fishing activity throughout the most bio-diverse waters, MMF aims to mitigate threats to vulnerable species.

Community activities were succesfully achieved through monitoring the conservation outcomes and threats and preventing destructive fishing activities (Tofo, Barra, Rocha, Morrungulo).

To achieve the proposed goals were crutial: 

  • Training workshops for CCP, leaders, coastal police and fishermen on marine resource management and LMMAs 
  • Establishing LMMAs and reef closures through consensus building, engagement with local, provincial and national authorities, scientific advice and implementation support.
  • Developing marine management plans with communities.

Through conservation and better management of marine resources, especially megafauna, all coastal communities in the project areas will indirectly benefit from sustained income from fishing and tourism businesses.

4. Stakeholder Engagement (ShE) Workshops

Management of surface and groundwater resources is a serious concern to local communities. Efforts at the individual or household level are not sufficient to plan and manage water. Hence it is essential that the diverse groups associated with a particular water resource come together to understand, plan and manage the resource judiciously, equitably and sustainably.

 

Watershed development, for example, through the Village Watershed/ Development Committee supported by the local governing body, brings all inhabitants of the entire village(s) together to regenerate their degraded watershed to enhance soil and water harvesting potential.

 

Two types of ShE events are:

1) Engaging the primary and secondary stakeholders at cluster level: these involve participation of direct water users and the neighbouring (upstream and downstream) communities to understand the scientific knowledge shared and active engagement in exercises.

2) Engaging representatives of the primary, secondary and tertiary stakeholders at block or district levels: These are mainly the government officials, experts in water, agriculture and allied sectors, practitioners, academics and research institutes. At this level of stakeholder engagement, participants discuss the larger perspectives of policy, advocacy and legal dynamics of water resources.

Stakeholder Engagement workshops include group exercises, games and discussions. Open and healthy discussions are encouraged around common concerns. The scientific information regarding socio-economic, local biophysical and hydro-geological findings is shared by WOTR’s researchers to enable participants to make informed decisions. During the process, VWMTs and Water caretakers prepare water budgets followed by the water harvesting and water-saving plans. In all our workshops we promote women participation as a criterion for successful implementation.

 

With more information and knowledge received through ShEs, the local stakeholders make informed decisions; immediate actions and development at the village level have taken place. Several water budgeting plans were made and followed through, which improved water sufficiency, provided drinking water security, and reduced crop losses. Introduction of villagers to water-saving and harvesting techniques improved water availability and water-use efficiency through the changed behavior of farmers. The rules and regulations made at the village level enhanced the power and reliability of local institutions in water management by increasing unity among the village community. However, adoption to new pathways and bringing about behavioral change is a very slow process. Villagers have insecurities of losing their ‘private’ share of water because of water budgeting. It is thus still anticipated to take a longer time to establish local water institution and informed communities to accept WSI completely.

Monitoring and Adaptive Management

Regular monitoring of the NEPL NP’s ecotourism program is essential to ensure the conservation objectives as well as continuous visitor satisfaction and therefore the overall project sustainability. The NEPL NP ecotourism program monitors the following information:

  • Wildlife monitoring is adapted to the ecotourism area and incorporates all or some of the following techniques: Camera trapping, GPS recorded all direct/indirect observations, Species recording of direct observations.
  • Financial data is entered in the system for every tour and is analysed on monthly and annual basis
  • Visitor Feedback data is collected from all visitors after every tour and allows to identify and improve tour services at the best delay as well as offers an opportunity to consider new ideas and further improvement needs.
  • Visitor Arrival and Profile is collected from all visitors on every tour and allows to identify the visitor trends and profile and therefore better understand and communicate to the market, as well as identify new opportunities.
  • Data collection forms
  • Wildlife Monitoring systems (direct observations, camera trapping, etc)
  • SMART (Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool)
  • The data collection systems must be simple to use and straight forward,
  • The collected ecotourism data can be useful for the National Park management, especially the wildlife data and law enforcement observations.
Law Enforcement

Two ranger stations are located in the two NEPL NP ecotourism sites. The law enforcement teams in the ecotourism area apprehend illegal activities, protect the tourism infrastructures and contribute data to the Ecotourism Benefit Fund calculation. In addition, the NEPL NP ecotours deliver benefits to the NEPL NP law enforcement program through the following activities: (1) regular presence in NEPL NP, (2) illegal activity identification (3) communication on the protected area's regulations to communities & visitors

  • Mobile ranger teams
  • Law enforcement strategy, financial and human resources
  • Prosecution
  • An active law enforcement presence is essential in wildlife tourism areas, whereas simply developing wildlife tourism does not automatically lead to a reduction of threats or improved levels of wildlife protection.
  • Due to limited financial and human resources, the law enforcement presence might lack to be equally distributed within all the ecotourism area. It may therefore be necessary to incorporate additional monitoring mechanisms that can be equally assessed, for example monitoring community efforts in regards of the land encroachment by comparing the land use plan and the satellite images.
Monitoring for Returning Adults

A total of 24 Common Loon chicks were successfully moved from New York and Maine to southeastern Massachusetts as part of BRI’s Massachusetts loon translocation project conducted from 2015-2017 -- 

  • 15 were reared in aquatic enclosures before being released onto Pocksha, Assawompset, or Little Quittacas Ponds (APC). 
  • 9 older chicks were directly released after being transported. 

In 2017, an immature loon chick translocated the previous year was re-confirmed on the APC, marking the first record of a loon chick returning to the release site after its release year. 

 

As of spring 2020, nine adult loons returned to the lakes in Massachusetts to which they were translocated and captive-reared, and then from which they fledged. Their return marks a major milestone in the efforts to translocate Common Loons.

Translocation involves multiple teams conducting source population surveys, capture and transport, and the difficult task of safely rearing the chicks, with numerous steps and processes in between. 

This is a long-term study and needs careful thought and planning throughout the process. The most important factor is the health of the wildlife.