Modelling transboundary consequences and trade-offs
Through workshops and conference calls, the core team develops a concise influence diagram that represents the key hypothesized relationships between the possible actions, external factors, and ultimate objectives. The coaches use this diagram as a conceptual basis when developing a Bayesian decision network, which allows for assigning stakeholder values and probabilities within the influence diagram. The Bayesian decision network therefore provides a visualization of the quantitative decision model. Within another workshop setting that includes the 8 representative stakeholders and up to 2 experts, the coaches ask each participant to individually provide numerical inputs for the model. There are two types of questions for the elicitation on a scale from 0 to 100%: 1) percent chance that a given external factor or ultimate objective will follow a particular trajectory while accounting other external factors and allocation options; 2) percent satisfaction with each possible combination of outcomes for the three ultimate objectives. During a following discussion, stakeholders agree on set of predictions and satisfaction scores to represent the averages among participants in the decision analysis.
Face-to-face interactions among core team members are essential for developing and filling in the decision model, considering that many participants are not accustomed to modeling. Reducing categories per variable in the Bayesian decision network to 2-3 ensures that the analysis is feasible. Conducting the analysis requires expertise in workshop facilitation, elicitation of quantitative inputs from stakeholders, multi-criteria decision analysis, and Bayesian belief networks.
For transparency it is useful to have two versions of the influence diagram: a comprehensive one representing all hypothesized relationships and a concise one representing only the relationships with a high degree of uncertainty and relevance to the decision. To ensure understanding of the elicitation, coaches should provide participants background information and a written guide for providing their independent inputs for the analysis. It is essential that participants provide their inputs individually to avoid a subset of participants driving the outcome of the analysis. The coaches should inform participants that the model inputs only represent perspectives of participants at the workshop and that a forthcoming sensitivity analysis can guide future modeling and estimation work. Participants are more motivated to provide quantitative inputs for the BDN when they are informed that it provides a visual and quantitative justification for how the recommended decision is determined.
Determining & implementing transboundary resource allocation
The recommended allocation option is defined as the one with the greater expected stakeholder satisfaction, which is calculated based on inputs and structure of the Bayesian decision network. Recognizing uncertainties about elicited predictions and satisfaction levels, analysts conduct a sensitivity analysis explore whether the recommended allocation changes depending on the set of inputs used for the analysis. In particular, they run the analysis twice: once using the averaged inputs and then a second time based only the input (from the individual) for each variable that is most favorable for the opposing allocation option (i.e., the option with the lower expected satisfaction under the averaged inputs). If the recommendation changes following the second model run, then the analysts use results from both model runs to calculate the expected value of perfect information. This calculation represents the expected percent increase in satisfaction if the uncertainties about the variables and relationships in the model are fully resolved through further research. This provides a way to check the robustness of the recommended allocation to uncertainty and can lead to recommendations for further research to improve decision-making.
Conducting the sensitivity analysis requires expertise in multi-criteria decision analysis, Bayesian belief networks, and calculating the expected value of perfect information.
Using averaged inputs, expected satisfaction with the optimistic allocation option was 11% greater than the status-quo allocation. Some participants indicated that local farmers and agriculture interests were poorly represented at the workshop. When using only those inputs from the agricultural representative at the workshop, the optimistic allocation remained the preferred option by 10%. The status-quo allocation only became preferred when status-quo favourable inputs were used for at least two of the three ultimate objectives. This indicates that if more evidence becomes available that supports the inputs that favour the status-quo allocation, then this could change the recommendation to following the status-quo. If uncertainty about management effectiveness is completely resolved through additional information, expected satisfaction could increase by up to 5%. This is the maximum expected value of conducting further research to inform the decision model.
Scientific shark committee
Many of the Fin Fighters are non-scientists and do not have backgrounds in biology or conservation. We have therefore created a system of collaboration with scientists to produce a tangible and reasoned method of generating action for species conservation. We established a committee of shark scientists to share skills and bring new technology to shark conservation, and specifically to the Moroccan studies. Working with scientists to collect data for their studies as well as for our own reports, ensures a circular needs based relationship: Scientists come to us with data requirements, we fill these by collecting data, which is then used in their scientific research, and the results are made available for Fin Fighters to use in pushing practical conservation or working to implement enforcement/policy. In this way we are all working collectively to ensure our needs are met and any papers published credit Fin Fighters as an institution for data collection, which adds to our credibility.
Many scientists have expressed frustrations as they feel that once a specific study is completed they have to move on to the next one without their concerns for the species being addressed or heard. Conservation and science continue to drive each other. What we are able to do as conservationists with a broader agenda is to bring all the different areas of study together for a common purpose and even propose new areas of study for future scientific Investigation.
It is not always easy to provide every scientist with exactly what they need, due to practical challenges, e.g. bad weather. Sharing of data and research had been interesting as many scientists are reluctant to enter in to collaborations due to either being stung in their past by fellow scientists who have appropriated their work, or for many scientists they simply have never worked in this way with non-scientists. However this has been easily overcome by the nature of the committee and the positive steps we are all taking together to share our ideas and time. The progressive and results based approach Fin Fighters have, has reassured many scientists to our commitment and desire to be scientific and reasoned with our work.
Formative Research
During the planning phase extensive formative research informs the Social Marketing, as well as the Technical Assistance components of a campaign. Research sets the baselines that allow the assessment of social and conservation impacts following a campaign. Qualitative research (e.g. focus groups, observation, in-depth interviews) is geared towards understanding target audience opinions, feelings, concerns and perceived benefits of current as well as desired management practices. Qualitative research is about creating a casual conversation with and between participants to establish a comfortable relationship, and to reveal underlying information unobtainable through quantitative research. Quantitative research surveys capture specific answers to specific questions to describe demography, identify media preferences, and assess the current state of knowledge, attitude, communication and readiness of target audiences regarding a certain behavior change. Both components ultimately inform campaign decisions like objectives, respective activities, materials, and messages for both Social Marketing and Technical Assistance.
• Training on qualitative and quantitative research methods. • Generic qualitative research guide/procedure to support researcher in preparing and during research rounds. • Templates to facilitate qualitative research analyses. • Quantitative research (i.e. survey), following best practices for survey question design to avoid bias in respondent answers. • Committed base of volunteers to support survey implementation. • Software to process and analyze quantitative data.
Qualitative research techniques (e.g., focus group and in-depth interviews) geared towards understanding the target audience opinions, feelings and concerns regarding a certain behavior change are essential to create casual conversations for participants. This enables creating an environment of trust in which fishers feel comfortable expressing what they really think instead of expressing what others want to hear. The latter would make data barely reliable. Surveys that are built on qualitative research results tend to better inform campaign strategies, making them more aligned with campaign goals and objectives. It is essential to avoid setbacks when it comes to survey implementation, and detailed planning based on sample sizes and human resources is necessary. In that sense, building strong relationships with a committed group of campaign volunteers to support this task is essential.
Transparent sharing of information
The results of the project have been shared with Belize’s Ministry of Forest, Fisheries and Sustainable Development (including Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute and National Climate Change Office) and the Ministry of Tourism to facilitate replication, and uptake of the process and recommendations. The results have also been shared with local communities, local NGOs, land developers and the private tourism sector to build capacity, awareness and implementation of greener landscape practices within the coastal zone.
• Continuous and transparent sharing of information and best practices with communities and stakeholders. • Interest and wish to conserve the natural ecosystems exhibited by local communities, stakeholders and government decision-makers.
Working in partnership and building a sustained relationship with local communities and stakeholders (e.g. private tourism sector groups) on the Peninsula opened doors for us to influence better practices on the ground. This is very important since these groups can play important roles as advocates, sponsors, partners and agents of change. WWF has been carrying out conservation and climate adaptation related projects on the Placencia Peninsula since 2007, and over the years have built credibility within and among the communities and sectors on the Peninsula. Where there is trust, communication can be very effective.
Monitoring of the comeback of the "good life"
From the beginning of creation of the ICCA, the local community engaged in the monitoring of quality and quantity of fish catch, socio-economic change and ecosystem health.
Only available in French. To read this section in French, please download the document "Blue Solution Template in French: ‘L’aire du patrimoine communautaire KAWAWANA: La bonne vie retrouvée par la conservation’” from the bottom of this page, under 'Resources'.
Only available in French. To read this section in French, please download the document "Blue Solution Template in French: ‘L’aire du patrimoine communautaire KAWAWANA: La bonne vie retrouvée par la conservation’” from the bottom of this page, under 'Resources'.
Technical Assistance (TA)
Unlike Social Marketing, the Technical Assistance (TA) is based on more personal interactions with the fishers at the fishing group level (cooperatives or associations) or at the individual fisher level. This allows the issues to be addressed with more detail and depth, although larger groups of people are not reached. The overarching goal is to promote fishers´ support for conservation actions (e.g., creation of FRZ, adoption of sustainable fishing practices). Technical assistance tools are targeted towards building capacity in coastal communities and removing technical barriers, emphasizing leadership among fishers to improve the management of fisheries resources. Examples of technical assistance activities include one-on-one conversations, fishing trips, fisher exchanges among sites, formal training in specific fishing methods through workshops and courses, informal training, meetings with the authorities, follow-up with administrative and legal processes (e.g., fishing concession/permit renewal) and providing organizational materials (e.g., file cabinets, blackboards, etc.).
• High level of technical experience and skills of implementing partner allow deeper and more detailed TA interventions with fishers. • Well designed, implemented and analyzed formative research supports the definition of thematic areas for TA. • Partnerships with government agencies and NGOs to add human and financial resources and give fishers assurance that their effort is acknowledged. • Target audience participation in the design and future implementation of TA activities to generate ownership and contribute to reducing the resistance to the campaign effort.
Technical Assistance interventions help the campaign address issues identified in the Barrier Removal step, but interventions are not necessarily limited to that stage in the process. Despite the differences in the context of each campaign site, defined by the conditions of the country and the fishing industry, very similar thematic areas were identified for each TA strategy. Building trust with the fishers is a primary step for all TA activities. Those activities which involve as many fishers as possible generate ownership in fishers and facilitate the adoption of behaviors. Moreover, fishers are empowered to follow up on the agreements derived from each activity, improve their self-organization, establish agreements internally or with third parties to publicly reaffirm and guarantee their collective decisions, and promote their participation in activities that impact the fisheries management decision-making process.
Cost-benefit analysis
Alternative adaptation options were analyzed via the Marine InVest tool to identify costs and benefits of these approaches. Costs were incorporated directly into the scenarios and InVEST. This included the costs of implementation of adaptation options combined with any associated costs to ecosystem services quantified by our models, and benefits represented by the positive return in ecosystem service values quantified by our models. Local experts helped in reviewing the selected ecosystem services and adaptation options. A technical report was developed on the activities.
The models had the capacity to effectively quantify the potential costs and benefits of climate change and alternative adaptation strategies to lobster fishing and coastal protection, and alternative adaptation strategies to tourism and carbon storage and sequestration. The ecosystem service models provided a useful framework for tackling a complex set of issues within limited timeline.
Using storylines, spatial scenarios for Integrated and Reactive adaptation approaches, three models for ecosystem services, model for seawall protection from storms, information from the literature, and stakeholder expertise, we were able to effectively quantify the benefits of adaptation options in terms of revenue from lobster and tourism, carbon storage and sequestration, and avoided damages to coastal infrastructure. Outputs from models are relevant to Belize’s decision-makers, the public and private sectors, as described in building block 5. This CBA approach helped to clearly assess the costs and benefits of alternative adaptation options in an efficient way. Standardizing both costs and benefits, such as ecosystem services, in monetary values enables cross-sector decision-making and allows for a more complete economic assessment of options.
Gaining an invitation to the CBD EBSA meeting in Moscow
We carefully prepared our maps and other data and then wrote a supporting letter to one of the organizers of the IUCN CBD EBSA meeting in Moscow in March 2013. After some back and forth, we managed to get a formal invitation and to raise the funds to send researcher Mikhail Nagaylik. He attended and submitted a strong case for a large EBSA covering most of the east coast of Kamchatka. This EBSA was accepted and supported both by the scientists as well as the Ministry in Moscow.
The fact that FEROP co-director Erich Hoyt had attended MPA meetings and was an IUCN WCPA and SSC member helped in approaching the organizers of the CBD meeting in Moscow to obtain a place for a FEROP researcher. FEROP's deep experience in the region meant that the expertise would be essential.
Think creatively and just because you aren’t formally invited to something doesn’t mean you don’t belong, or that you can’t get in.
Declaration of an Indigenous Community Conserved Area (ICCA)
The Fishermen Association of the Rural Municipality of Mangagoulack (Casamance, Senegal) was informed that— following international CBD decisions and IUCN recommendations— Senegal was promoting and respecting locally established “community conserved areas”. The association thus mobilized the community to create Kawawana ¬ (“our local heritage to be preserved by us all”) in its ancien estuarine territory. In Kawawana, the ancient governance and management rules– renovated and agreed upon also by the municipal and regional governments – are finally again respected.
Only available in French. To read this section in French, please download the document "Blue Solution Template in French: ‘L’aire du patrimoine communautaire KAWAWANA: La bonne vie retrouvée par la conservation’” from the bottom of this page, under 'Resources'.
Only available in French. To read this section in French, please download the document "Blue Solution Template in French: ‘L’aire du patrimoine communautaire KAWAWANA: La bonne vie retrouvée par la conservation’” from the bottom of this page, under 'Resources'.