Triglav National Park
West and South Europe
Brady
Mattsson
Identifying and framing the transboundary decision problem
Identifying joint transboundary management objectives
Transboundary management options and external factors
Modelling transboundary consequences and trade-offs
Determining & implementing transboundary resource allocation
Identifying and framing the transboundary decision problem
The first step is to form a core team composed of two structured-decision-making (SDM) coaches with skills in decision analysis and workshop facilitation along with one authority representing each protected area in the transboundary region. In consultation with park directors, one primary contact person is identified as having the necessary knowledge and time availability to participate in the entire decision process. The core team then holds a series of conference calls or meetings to identify a joint transboundary management question. Between calls, the core team reviews any available management plans from the two respective protected areas and a guidance document on transboundary cooperation between the parks to identify shared management topics. The core team then formulates a concise 1-sentence transboundary conservation question, which summarizes the focal decision, associated objectives, and time-horizon: “Over the next 10 years, how can the managers of Triglav National Park and Julian Prealps Nature Park allocate their resources to best satisfy all stakeholders concerned about brown bears in the Julian Alps?”
During a stakeholder workshop where the decision analysis was conducted, 10 of 12 participants provided independent feedback on each step of the SDM process via a questionnaire. Of the 10 respondents, 9 indicated that the decision question was clear and relevant to their own interests, which confirmed that the problem framing and question were valid for developing a solution.
Authorities from the respective parks found it useful to independently determine whether there would be added value of transboundary cooperation on planned activities listed in their management plans and transboundary guidance document. The authorities also indicated that management of brown bear is relevant for multiple objectives for both protected areas and invokes strong interest in their stakeholder communities. By focusing on brown bear, the managers believed that it would be easier to engage a diverse set of stakeholders in addressing a key transboundary conservation issue and could serve as a useful example for applying SDM and transboundary conservation to other management topics in the Julian Alps and beyond.
Identifying joint transboundary management objectives
The first step is to identify stakeholder groups that should be considered when addressing the transboundary management question, including but not limited to the protected area staffs themselves. Six stakeholder groups were identified: nature conservation, agriculture, forestry, tourism, research, and local communities and municipalities. The core team then identifies up to 8 stakeholder representatives to include in the decision-analytic process. Each participating park authority then independently identifies 2-5 concerns and/or wishes from the perspective of each stakeholder group. Next, each core team converts the wishes and concerns into statements of objectives, and ultimate objectives are then distinguished from intermediate objectives that are only means to achieve ultimate objectives. A reduced set of three ultimate, quantifiable objectives are then identified to represent the main trade-offs and concerns across stakeholder groups while serving as measures of success for the focal transboundary conservation efforts. Focusing on a smaller number of ultimate objectives ensures feasibility and understandability for conducting the participatory decision analysis.
To avoid the objectives and stakeholders being driven by one of the two participating parks, initial lists of stakeholder groups and objectives should be based on independent input from park authorities of the two respective parks in each pilot region. A group of >8 stakeholder representatives (including the park authorities) would likely require a professional facilitator, and the process described here would need to be considerably modified to address issues related to participatory decision
Park authorities found it useful to organize an original set of 18 objectives into a hierarchy to recognize interrelationships among objectives and “Maintain coexistence of bears and humans” as an ultimate objective. For the decision analysis, the team selected the following ultimate objectives: 1) maintain bear population carrying capacity in the transboundary area and beyond, 2) maintain sustainable agriculture in the transboundary area, and 3) minimize stakeholder conflicts regarding bear management. Half the respondents to the stakeholder workshop survey indicated the ultimate objectives were clearly understood and representative of their concerns. Some stakeholders indicated the following issues were not addressed sufficiently: actual numbers of bears, ecotourism, positive impacts of bears, relationship between bear management and local communities, ecological requirements of bears, relevant regulations (national and regional), and practical day-to-day problems.
Transboundary management options and external factors
Working with the coaches, the park authorities identify a list of factors that have strong potential influence on the ultimate objectives and that are at least partly beyond the control of park staff. They then narrow down the external factors to a focal set that has a high degree uncertainty about their magnitude and effects on the ultimate objectives. Next, park authorities develop two alternative scenarios representing possible future trajectories for the external factors. A status quo scenario assumes that system dynamics (i.e., external factors along with their impacts and effectiveness of management activities for achieving objectives) will follow the most likely future trajectory. An optimistic scenario assumes that system dynamics are more favorable than expected for achieving the objectives. To keep the participatory decision analysis feasible, additional scenarios (e.g., pessimistic) may be documented for future analyses. After listing possible management activities, park authorities independently assign a percent allocation toward each activity in a way they believe will most likely achieve the objectives under each scenario for external factors.
Initial lists of external factors and management activities were provided independently to ensure that no one park authority drives the final selection. During a workshop the core team developed a comprehensive influence diagram representing hypotheses about how ultimate objectives are influenced by management activities, resulting in a list of 9 possible activities. Joint discussions about percent allocations among activities led to adjustments to better reflect management realities.
The core team identified two external factors for inclusion in the decision analysis: 1) Agreement by Alpine countries in common politics concerning large carnivores. 2) Perceived level of competence of protected areas from perspective of stakeholders, allowing for their acceptance of carrying out park management activities and associated outcomes related to bear management. Eight of 10 respondents to the stakeholder-workshop questionnaire indicated that the external factors and possible management activities were clearly understood, although some suggestions were given to consider: 1) changes in stakeholder perceptions of large carnivores; 2) bear management in other parts of the population; 3) economic conditions for sheep breeding; 4) hunters lobbying for an open bear season; 5) adequate prevention tools for mountain pastures; 6) bear-related ecotourism should account for differences between parks in accessibility for tourists.
Modelling transboundary consequences and trade-offs
Through workshops and conference calls, the core team develops a concise influence diagram that represents the key hypothesized relationships between the possible actions, external factors, and ultimate objectives. The coaches use this diagram as a conceptual basis when developing a Bayesian decision network, which allows for assigning stakeholder values and probabilities within the influence diagram. The Bayesian decision network therefore provides a visualization of the quantitative decision model. Within another workshop setting that includes the 8 representative stakeholders and up to 2 experts, the coaches ask each participant to individually provide numerical inputs for the model. There are two types of questions for the elicitation on a scale from 0 to 100%: 1) percent chance that a given external factor or ultimate objective will follow a particular trajectory while accounting other external factors and allocation options; 2) percent satisfaction with each possible combination of outcomes for the three ultimate objectives. During a following discussion, stakeholders agree on set of predictions and satisfaction scores to represent the averages among participants in the decision analysis.
Face-to-face interactions among core team members are essential for developing and filling in the decision model, considering that many participants are not accustomed to modeling. Reducing categories per variable in the Bayesian decision network to 2-3 ensures that the analysis is feasible. Conducting the analysis requires expertise in workshop facilitation, elicitation of quantitative inputs from stakeholders, multi-criteria decision analysis, and Bayesian belief networks.
For transparency it is useful to have two versions of the influence diagram: a comprehensive one representing all hypothesized relationships and a concise one representing only the relationships with a high degree of uncertainty and relevance to the decision. To ensure understanding of the elicitation, coaches should provide participants background information and a written guide for providing their independent inputs for the analysis. It is essential that participants provide their inputs individually to avoid a subset of participants driving the outcome of the analysis. The coaches should inform participants that the model inputs only represent perspectives of participants at the workshop and that a forthcoming sensitivity analysis can guide future modeling and estimation work. Participants are more motivated to provide quantitative inputs for the BDN when they are informed that it provides a visual and quantitative justification for how the recommended decision is determined.
Determining & implementing transboundary resource allocation
The recommended allocation option is defined as the one with the greater expected stakeholder satisfaction, which is calculated based on inputs and structure of the Bayesian decision network. Recognizing uncertainties about elicited predictions and satisfaction levels, analysts conduct a sensitivity analysis explore whether the recommended allocation changes depending on the set of inputs used for the analysis. In particular, they run the analysis twice: once using the averaged inputs and then a second time based only the input (from the individual) for each variable that is most favorable for the opposing allocation option (i.e., the option with the lower expected satisfaction under the averaged inputs). If the recommendation changes following the second model run, then the analysts use results from both model runs to calculate the expected value of perfect information. This calculation represents the expected percent increase in satisfaction if the uncertainties about the variables and relationships in the model are fully resolved through further research. This provides a way to check the robustness of the recommended allocation to uncertainty and can lead to recommendations for further research to improve decision-making.
Conducting the sensitivity analysis requires expertise in multi-criteria decision analysis, Bayesian belief networks, and calculating the expected value of perfect information.
Using averaged inputs, expected satisfaction with the optimistic allocation option was 11% greater than the status-quo allocation. Some participants indicated that local farmers and agriculture interests were poorly represented at the workshop. When using only those inputs from the agricultural representative at the workshop, the optimistic allocation remained the preferred option by 10%. The status-quo allocation only became preferred when status-quo favourable inputs were used for at least two of the three ultimate objectives. This indicates that if more evidence becomes available that supports the inputs that favour the status-quo allocation, then this could change the recommendation to following the status-quo. If uncertainty about management effectiveness is completely resolved through additional information, expected satisfaction could increase by up to 5%. This is the maximum expected value of conducting further research to inform the decision model.
Transboundary working group for nature conservation
Transferring of national park zonation between two countries
Coordinated transboundary measures to improve and connect biotopes
Transboundary sustainable tourism
Scientific shark committee
Many of the Fin Fighters are non-scientists and do not have backgrounds in biology or conservation. We have therefore created a system of collaboration with scientists to produce a tangible and reasoned method of generating action for species conservation. We established a committee of shark scientists to share skills and bring new technology to shark conservation, and specifically to the Moroccan studies. Working with scientists to collect data for their studies as well as for our own reports, ensures a circular needs based relationship: Scientists come to us with data requirements, we fill these by collecting data, which is then used in their scientific research, and the results are made available for Fin Fighters to use in pushing practical conservation or working to implement enforcement/policy. In this way we are all working collectively to ensure our needs are met and any papers published credit Fin Fighters as an institution for data collection, which adds to our credibility.
Many scientists have expressed frustrations as they feel that once a specific study is completed they have to move on to the next one without their concerns for the species being addressed or heard. Conservation and science continue to drive each other. What we are able to do as conservationists with a broader agenda is to bring all the different areas of study together for a common purpose and even propose new areas of study for future scientific Investigation.
It is not always easy to provide every scientist with exactly what they need, due to practical challenges, e.g. bad weather. Sharing of data and research had been interesting as many scientists are reluctant to enter in to collaborations due to either being stung in their past by fellow scientists who have appropriated their work, or for many scientists they simply have never worked in this way with non-scientists. However this has been easily overcome by the nature of the committee and the positive steps we are all taking together to share our ideas and time. The progressive and results based approach Fin Fighters have, has reassured many scientists to our commitment and desire to be scientific and reasoned with our work.
Transboundary sustainable tourism
To encourage nature-friendly behavior of visitors and to create consciousness of locals about ecosystems and the region’s common history, multiple measures were taken to foster TB cooperation in the sustainable tourism sector: 1) Wooden tourism infrastructure (walkway, viewing hut, tower) was set up, allowing visitors to experience nature without disturbing habitats. 2) Walking and cycling routes, which benefit from and emphasize the common cultural and natural history, were expanded and matching bilingual maps were published. 3) Training of TB nature and culture guides ensured valuable TB guided tours for every audience on various topics. 4) To foster common projects and to improve coordination of local tourism, workshops for local tourism stakeholders were organized. These measures resulted in combined tour offers that attract visitors, give an understanding of the regional history and modern ecosystems and landscapes, and benefit local businesses. 5) Finally, outcomes of a better coordination of TB public relations included a common logo, travelling exhibitions, a bilingual homepage and informative signs along the trails to elevate the visibility of the TB National Park Region.
From the beginning of the Middle Ages to the Congress of Vienna (1814-1815), the region at the Dutch-German border has been the common property of 12 parishes. The Meinweg reflects this common history still today, which combined with attractive landscape features (e.g., terraced landscapes) and the cluster of Natura 2000 protected areas provides a suitable landscape for sustainable tourism.
For many stakeholders the cooperation means a shift in their usual reasoning, which concentrates mostly on attracting the most visitors possible to their own organisation or municipality. It turned out to be the most motivating to integrate tourism-focused stakeholders from the start as partners, which increased their identification with and commitment to the project. Similar considerations applied to cooperation of guides, hotels, and restaurants: even though there were some beneficial outcomes, maintaining collaboration required constant motivating actions and cooperation turned out not to last in several cases. In future, a more detailed concept for these stakeholders should be established at the beginning of the project. Regarding the elaboration and publication of hiking and cycling maps, it turned out to be very useful to cooperate with an editor from the start to ensure the maps are published/reprinted even after the completion of the project.
Coordinated transboundary measures to improve and connect biotopes
The project included TB nature and landscape management measures to improve habitats and the biotope network. TB management measures included: > Support of heathland and myrtle bogs development, which included removal of emergent alders, pines, spruces and birches, along with removal of shrubs along streams. To better connect people and nature, interested locals helped park staff to free the dunes from pines and black cherry to allow the heathland to develop. > Management of habitat for reptiles and amphibians (e.g. adder [Vipera berus], sand lizard [Lacerta agilis], northern crested newt [Triturus cristatus], common spadefoot [Pelobates fuscus],) by connecting and enlarging biotopes (via mowing ferns, cutting small sods, removing lumber and copes) and restoration of aquatic breeding sites (habitat of crested newt [Triturus cristatus]). > Part of the project was the implementation of the water management plan of the National Park de Meinweg: >35 ponds and temporary water bodies were renaturalized and/or restored.
Before the project began, there was already a water management plan (including guidance for restoration and enhancement of water bodies and biotopes) drawn up for the National Park de Meinweg. This plan enabled coordinated water body management during the project.
Having a good basis for cooperation and personal contacts between the protected areas is a key ingredient to ensure mutual understanding, agreement, and improving the condition and connectivity of native biotopes.